The Armband Beats The Chip

Last week 92.7 per cent of the top thousand managers captained Erling Haaland. He got 13, two goals, job done. Bruno Fernandes got 23. Just 0.4 per cent of that elite sample had the armband on him. That is FPL in one sentence. The safe pick paid out, and the player who actually won the week sat in nearly half of all squads without the armband.

Now the Engine has gone and done it again. For Gameweek 3 it projects Bruno at 13.7 xPts away at Everton and Haaland at 8.5 xPts at home to Coventry. Be clear about what that means. It is a bold call against the crowd, and against a striker owned by 71.5 per cent of all managers and 98.7 per cent of the elite. Coventry at the Etihad is exactly the fixture the Triple Captain crowd has been waiting for, and no model has ever talked anyone out of that with a decimal point. But the number is the number, and Bruno is the top scorer in the game.

Which brings us to the chip drawer. 233,946 managers had already burned a Triple Captain in Gameweek 2. Two gameweeks in. Chips come in two sets and the first set expires at Gameweek 19, so there is time. Look at City's run after Saturday: Man Utd away, then Sunderland at home, Liverpool away, Ipswich at home. Two more home bankers sit inside the next five weeks. Coventry at home is a lovely fixture, but it is not a rare one. A Triple Captain is worth burning when the fixture is a genuine outlier and your rank needs a shove, not simply because a good fixture has arrived early. Hold it.

The differential captain question is different, and it depends entirely on where you sit. If you are top of your mini-league, take Haaland and go and mow the lawn. If you are behind, Bruno is the sort of move that quietly wins you a season. He is 48.6 per cent owned, so he is no differential in the ownership sense, but with 0.4 per cent captaincy behind him he is one of the biggest captain differentials on the board. The downside is a quiet away day. The upside is 23 points doubled while the field doubles a projected 8.5.

Before 18:30 BST on Friday: choose your armband to match your position in the table, and keep the Triple Captain in the drawer. The Guru squad goes Bruno captain, Haaland vice. Not sure which camp you are in? Run your fifteen through Squad Report on FPL Guru. It shows exactly how far your squad sits from the field, and that is the number this decision hangs on.

Last week's issue made four sets of calls. The Gameweek 2 average was 81; here is how they scored.

Captain, Haaland: 13 points (26 with the armband). Two goals at Palace. Job done, though Bruno's 23 sat next to him wearing the vice armband.

The Guru XI: 104 points against the average of 81. Bruno 23, Haaland 26, Calafiori 11, Mbeumo 11, João Pedro 9. Our one transfer let us down: Reed did not play a minute. Diop came off the bench for 2.

Field moves: Rogers to Cherki paid off at once, 14 points against 5. Calvert-Lewin to Wissa was level, 8 points each.

Differentials: Mateta 0, Havertz 2, Kostoulas 5. Mateta picked up an injury and the other two stayed quiet. These did not work out, and every result stays on the record.

Deadline: Friday 4 September, 18:30 BST. Ipswich v Liverpool kicks off at 20:00 BST; ten fixtures end with Arsenal v Chelsea on Sunday.

Team news: Liverpool are without Ekitike, Bradley, Leoni and Chiesa. Mateta (hamstring) is out until October. Butland's shoulder keeps Tzolakis in Hull's goal. Nobody owned by more than 5 per cent is flagged this morning; Friday's press conferences are still to come.

Chip watch: Triple Captain talk is loud. Hold it (see the Take).

Price watch: Cherki is up £0.2 already; Wissa, De Cuyper, Calafiori and João Pedro up £0.1. Mbeumo and Tzolis are the most-sold players.

Captain: Bruno Fernandes (£12.0m, Man Utd, away at Everton, Sunday 14:00 BST). The Engine's Gameweek 3 projection puts him at 13.7 xPts, the highest in our squad, after three goals and an assist last week. Only 0.4 per cent of elite managers captained him in Gameweek 2.

Vice: Haaland (£15.5m, Man City, home to Coventry, Saturday 15:00 BST). The Engine has him at 8.5 xPts; the field will captain him at more than 90 per cent. He plays a day before Bruno, so if you want the safe route, simply swap the two.

Squad Report had the Guru squad red on Health, so this week's moves fix our own mistakes.

• Our free transfer: Gabriel to De Cuyper (£4.7m, Brighton, home to Leeds). Projected +17.9 points over five gameweeks, and it banks £3.3m.
• Our hit: Reed to Groß (£5.5m, Brighton). Reed has not played a minute; Groß has 15 points in two games and projects 20.0 over five. We take the 4-point hit. The maths repays it inside two weeks.
• If you own a £4.0m keeper who does not play: Tzolakis (Hull, £4.6m) projects +23.5 over five gameweeks.

The Engine's three highest-scored Gameweek 3 picks owned by fewer than 8 per cent of managers:

• Tzolakis (Hull, £4.6m, 7.6% owned): 20 points already, Butland out, and 11.1 projected at home to Villa on Saturday. The best cheap keeper in the game right now.
• Barry (Everton, £5.5m, 4.6%): 10 points in two games, home to Man Utd on Sunday.
• Gonzalo (Fulham, £6.0m, 4.6%): 8 points so far, home to a Palace side missing Mateta and Sarr.

Two changes: De Cuyper replaces Gabriel with the free transfer, and Groß replaces Reed for a 4-point hit. Bruno takes the armband from Haaland.


Squad Report on the new fifteen: Health improves from -8.6 to -0.4 points per gameweek against the elite field, and the weak spots fall from eight to five. That leaves £2.3m in the bank for next week.

Mbeumo scored, assisted and took two bonus points at home to Ipswich on Sunday, then became the most-sold player in the game. Most of that money is heading to Cherki, who has pulled in 1,468,632 transfers. The Engine still projects Mbeumo for 16.5 points over the next five gameweeks, and Man Utd's next two are Everton away and Man City at home. Selling a player who has just returned, to fund one that everybody already owns, is how the crowd pays twice.

Two daily puzzles, fresh at midnight UTC. Today's first clues:

• Who Played With? No. 84: the mystery player shared a dressing room at Inter Milan (2001) with Ireland's Robbie Keane.
• Career Path No. 83: a career that begins at Luton Town (2003 to 2005).

A new puzzle arrives every day. Play today's and keep your streak going through September.