The Isak Gap

At the Gameweek 3 deadline, 93.6 per cent of FPL Guru's 1,000-manager elite sample owned Isak. Only 16.5 per cent of all managers did. That is the widest gap between the elite and the crowd for any player in the game; the next largest, De Cuyper, is 68.1 per cent against 17.3. Isak then scored 13 at Ipswich, and 490,098 managers have bought him this week. He is now owned by 21.7 per cent, at £9.1m.

The player is the least interesting part of that number. Haaland sits at 71.8 per cent elite ownership against 71.3 overall, so the two groups agree about him. They disagree about owning a second premium forward alongside him. The elite do, and it changes how they use the armband. Haaland took 66.3 per cent of elite captaincy in Gameweek 3, down from 92.7 in Gameweek 2, and Isak took 24.4 per cent. The elite kept a second route open.

That second route matters more this week than most. Haaland goes to Old Trafford for the derby on Sunday at 16:30 BST, with Bruno Fernandes on the other side. Last week this newsletter captained Bruno and got 2 points back while Haaland scored 9. The FPL Guru Engine still has Bruno top for the derby on 9.4 xPts (expected points), with Haaland and Isak on 8.4 xPts each, and Isak plays Fulham at Anfield on Saturday at 15:00 BST. A squad with one premium forward has to pick a game and live with it. A squad with both can captain Saturday and treat Sunday as a bonus. Over five gameweeks the Engine has Haaland at 23.2 xPts and Isak at 22.5 xPts. The choice between them is small; the choice to hold both is large.

If you do not own Isak, the tempting move is to fix that tomorrow with a hit. Be careful. The elite bought before Ipswich, at the old price, and this week's 490,098 transfers are the crowd catching up. A four-point hit for a player projected at 8.4 xPts is a bet on one big haul, and last week's Guru XI paid a hit for Groß and got one point back. If Isak fits with a free transfer, make it. If he needs a hit, wait for Gameweek 5.

Before Saturday 13:30 BST, count your captain routes. If you have one, use this week's free transfer to add a second rather than paying for it. If you have two, keep both and put the armband on the Saturday game. Squad Report on FPL Guru grades your fifteen against the elite field, so you know which of the two squads you own before the deadline.

Last week's issue made four sets of calls. The Gameweek 3 average was 51; here is how they scored.

Captain, Bruno Fernandes: 2 points (4 with the armband). The vice, Haaland, scored 9. We had them the wrong way round.

The Guru XI: 42 points before the hit, 38 after, against the average of 51. Haaland 9 and Mbeumo 8 carried it. Bruno, Calafiori, Groß and João Pedro scored 6 between them. Our first losing week, and it stays on the record.

Transfers: Gabriel to De Cuyper gained 2 points (4 against 2). Reed to Groß cost 4 points and returned 1. The field move, Dubravka to Tzolakis, paid: 6 against 0.

Differentials: Tzolakis 6, Barry 2, Gonzalo 2. One of three did the job.

Deadline: Saturday 12 September, 13:30 BST. Five games kick off at 15:00 BST, Liverpool v Fulham among them. The Manchester derby is Sunday at 16:30 BST; Leeds v Newcastle closes the round on Monday.

Team news: O'Reilly (back) and Gakpo (thigh) are both rated 75 per cent. Watkins has left Villa for Al Hilal; 3.2 per cent still own him.

Chip watch: no chip. Gameweek 5 is the last round before a three-week international break.

Price watch: Elanga, Hall, Konsa, Ajayi and Havertz are close to a rise tonight. O'Reilly, Bruno and Szoboszlai are the most-sold players.

Captain: Bruno Fernandes (£12.0m, Man Utd, home to Man City, Sunday 16:30 BST). The FPL Guru Engine has him at 9.4 expected points (xPts) for Gameweek 4, one point clear of Haaland. After last week's 2 points that is a thin margin, and we say so, but it is still the highest number in our squad.

Vice: Haaland (£15.5m, Man City, away at Man Utd), 8.4 xPts. If you own Isak, he is level with Haaland on 8.4 xPts and plays Fulham at home on Saturday at 15:00 BST, a day before the derby.

Squad Report grades the Guru squad A-, with six weak spots on Health. One free transfer.

• Our move: Shaw to Mendy (£4.1m, Hull, away at Chelsea): +8.1 xPts over five gameweeks, the biggest gap in our squad.
• If you own Gakpo (13.8 per cent owned, thigh, 75 per cent): Ødegaard (£6.7m, Arsenal) projects 8.4 xPts this week against Gakpo's 1.9, for £0.5m less.
• If you own O'Reilly (14.2 per cent owned, back, 75 per cent): Ajayi (£4.1m, Hull) leads all defenders on 25 points, 9.1 xPts this week. Gvardiol (£5.6m) is the City option at 7.7 xPts.

Three players owned by fewer than 8 per cent of managers that the Engine rates highly for Gameweek 4, Mendy aside:

• Egan (Hull, £4.1m, 6.3% owned): 23 points from three games and 8.6 xPts projected at Chelsea on Saturday.
• Bogle (Leeds, £4.5m, 1.7%): 22 points, 8.1 xPts projected at home to Newcastle on Monday night.
• Scott (Bournemouth, £6.1m, 5.0%): 24 points, 7.9 xPts projected at home to Brentford on Saturday.

One change: Mendy replaces Shaw with the free transfer. Bruno keeps the armband and Haaland is vice. We do not own Isak and we are not paying a hit for him.


Squad Report on the new fifteen keeps the A- grade and lifts the squad into the top 6 per cent of real teams. The gap to the elite field narrows from 2.9 to 1.2 xPts per gameweek, and the weak spots fall from six to five. The move leaves £2.6m in the bank.

Last week's issue said hold it. About one manager in six played it anyway, in the week Haaland had Coventry at home. He scored 9, so the chip returned 27 from a 1-0 win: a fair week, not a great one, and those managers now wait until the first chip set expires at Gameweek 19 for their second. In the same round 709,478 Wildcards and 421,239 Free Hits went in, which makes Gameweek 3 the busiest chip week of the season so far.

Two daily puzzles, fresh at midnight UTC. Today's first clues:

• Who Played With? No. 91: the mystery player shared a dressing room at Villarreal (2007 to 2008) with Denmark's Jon Dahl Tomasson.
• Career Path No. 90: a career that begins at FC Barcelona Atlètic (1999 to 2001).

A new puzzle arrives every day. Play today's and keep your streak going through the international break.