The Break Is a Free Transfer

Tonight's deadline is 18:30 BST. The next one is Saturday 10 October at 11:00 BST. Whatever you do in the next few hours is locked for 22 days, through a full round of international fixtures, and that changes the maths on every move.

Start with the transfer you can bank. A manager who holds tonight wakes up on 10 October with two free transfers and three weeks of information: who came back from international duty injured, who lost their place, whose manager changed. A manager who pays a hit tonight pays four points to act before that information exists. The FPL Guru Engine's best available swap for a João Pedro owner, Calvert-Lewin, projects 3.5 xPts more this week. That does not repay a hit, and the break is the reason to stop there.

Take João Pedro, the doubt everyone is staring at. He is owned by 72.6% of managers, he is flagged at 75%, and 269,856 managers have sold him this week. Brazil released him on Tuesday, but The Standard reports Chelsea expect him to be fit for Brentford. The Engine has him at 1.7 xPts, which prices in the doubt rather than the player: he scored 12 on Saturday and has 33 points in four games, level with Haaland. Chelsea play at Brentford on Friday at 20:00 BST, so his team sheet is the first of the round. Keep him in your eleven, put a playing defender first on your bench, and let the automatic substitution do the work. If he misses, you lose a bench score, not four points, and he gets three weeks to heal before Gameweek 6 either way.

The same logic applies to the Wildcard. 760,682 managers played it in Gameweek 4 and 709,478 played it in Gameweek 3: 1,470,160 in two weeks, roughly one manager in seven, and every one of those squads now goes into the break without a reset button. The break is exactly when a Wildcard is worth most, because an international window is when a squad breaks. Save the chip for the 10 October deadline, when you know who came back fit.

So the deadline plan is short. Make one free transfer if a player is injured, as we have with Mendy. Put the armband on the softest fixture, which is Haaland at home to Sunderland on Sunday. Do not pay for a second move, do not play a chip, and treat the two free transfers waiting at Gameweek 6 as the most valuable asset you own.

Last week's issue made four sets of calls. The Gameweek 4 average was 69; here is how they scored.

Captain, Bruno Fernandes: 2 points (4 with the armband), for the second week running. The vice, Haaland, scored 9 again. Two weeks, two wrong armbands, and it stays on the record.

The Guru XI: 81 points, no hit, against the average of 69. Groß 17, Raya 14, João Pedro 12 and De Cuyper 11 did the work. Our best week of the season.

Transfers: Shaw to Mendy gained 1 point (1 against 0). The field moves: Gakpo to Ødegaard gained 2 (3 against 1); for O'Reilly owners, Ajayi returned 1 and Gvardiol 11.

Differentials: Bogle 15, Scott 4, Egan 2. Bogle was the joint second-highest scorer of the round.

Deadline: Friday 18 September, 18:30 BST. Brentford v Chelsea kicks off at 20:00 BST. Man City v Sunderland is Sunday at 14:00 BST.

Team news: João Pedro, Shaw, Pedro Porro and White are all rated 75%. Mendy (concussion) is out until October. Elanga is out with no return date.

Chip watch: no chip. After this round there is a three-week break; the Gameweek 6 deadline is Saturday 10 October, 11:00 BST.

Price watch: Rogers, Groß, Gibbs-White and Gvardiol are the most-bought players; Elanga, Szoboszlai and João Pedro the most-sold. Groß, Rogers and Ødegaard rose overnight.

Captain: Haaland (£15.6m, Man City, home to Sunderland, Sunday 14:00 BST). 8.9 xPts, four goals in his last three games, and the softest fixture on the card. The Engine has Gvardiol (9.3 xPts) and Groß (9.1 xPts) fractionally higher, but after two Bruno weeks we take the goals.

Vice: Groß (£5.7m, Brighton, home to Arsenal, Saturday 15:00 BST), 9.1 xPts and 33 points in four games.

Bruno owners: 7.4 xPts at Fulham on Sunday, 16:30 BST.

Squad Report grades the Guru squad B+ after this week's move. One free transfer, no hits.

• Our move: Mendy to Gvardiol (£5.7m, Man City, home to Sunderland): 9.3 xPts this week and 24.5 xPts over five gameweeks, more than De Cuyper (22.3 xPts) or Calafiori (19.4 xPts).
• If you own João Pedro (72.6% owned, 75% fit, expected to start): hold. The best swap, Calvert-Lewin (£6.0m), gains 3.5 xPts this week, not enough for a hit.
• If you own Szoboszlai (35.3%, 371,298 sold, 4.6 xPts): Groß (£5.7m) projects 9.1 xPts and costs £1.3m less.

Three players owned by fewer than 8% of managers that the Engine rates highly for Gameweek 5:

• Bogle (Leeds, £4.6m, 4.8% owned): 37 points, the highest total in the game, and 9.8 xPts at home to Crystal Palace on Sunday.
• Schade (Brentford, £6.1m, 6.8%): 30 points, 15 of them last week, and 7.5 xPts at home to Chelsea on Friday night.
• Giles (Hull, £4.0m, 2.7%): 24 points from four starts and 6.6 xPts at Newcastle on Saturday.

One change: Gvardiol replaces Mendy with the free transfer, leaving £1.0m in the bank. Haaland takes the armband and Groß is vice. João Pedro starts; Diop is first off the bench if he misses out.


Squad Report on the new fifteen grades it B+, top 20% of real teams, and the gap to the elite field narrows from 6.2 to 3.0 xPts per gameweek once Mendy's empty slot is filled. Four weak spots remain, and they wait for the break.

FPL Guru's 1,000-manager elite sample took the armband off Haaland for the derby: 60.8% captained Palmer at home to Hull and 30.2% went João Pedro. Haaland scored 9 at Old Trafford; Palmer scored 5. Under 40% of that sample own Haaland at all, against 72.9% of all managers. The lesson is not that the elite are wrong. It is that the armband is a fixture decision every single week, and this week the fixture, Sunderland at home, says Haaland.

Two daily puzzles, fresh at midnight UTC. Today's first clues:

• Who Played With? No. 98: the mystery player shared a dressing room at Inter Milan (2011 to 2012) with Japan's Yūto Nagatomo.
• Career Path No. 97: a career that begins at Heracles Almelo (2008 to 2010).

Three weeks without Premier League football start on Monday. A new puzzle arrives every day of the break; play today's and start a streak that is still alive at Gameweek 6.