The Armband Belongs to Groß

Saturday's deadline is 11:00 BST, the first one in 22 days. The break did what breaks do. Ten players owned by more than 8% of managers are now flagged at 75%, João Pedro among them, and 198,822 managers have already played a Wildcard for this round.

First, a correction to our own tools. This week the FPL Guru Engine's projections came out at about half their normal size. We traced it to three inputs that the model read on the wrong scale, and we fixed them. Every xPts figure in this issue comes from the fixed model.

Start with the armband, because the crowd has already decided it. In Gameweek 5, 75% of FPL Guru's 1,000-manager elite sample captained Haaland, and 85% of that sample now own him. This week he plays at Anfield on Sunday at 16:30 BST, and the Engine projects him at 5.8 xPts.

Groß is higher, at 6.9, the top projection in the game. He has 47 points, the most of any player, from three goals and four assists in five starts. He costs £5.9m, he takes Brighton's penalties, and 993,254 managers bought him this round. Brighton go to Sunderland on Saturday at 15:00 BST.

There is also last week to answer for. The Engine had Groß fractionally ahead of Haaland, and we overruled it to take the goals. Haaland scored 6. Groß, our vice-captain, scored 14. The armband we chose cost the Guru XI 16 points. This week the Engine has Groß ahead again, and this time we follow it: Groß is captain, Haaland is vice.

The transfer is João Pedro. Three weeks ago we told owners to hold through one doubt and let the bench cover him. He missed the game, Diop came on and scored 4, and the plan worked. But he is still rated 75%, now with a knee injury, and 506,771 managers sold him this round. We sell him for Barry (Everton, £5.7m). Barry has two goals from 3.9 expected goals on Understat's numbers, the third-most in the league, and he takes Everton's penalties. The Engine has him at 26.0 xPts over the next five gameweeks, against 23.3 for João Pedro.

What about the Wildcard we told you to save? Use it only if your squad still carries two or more flagged starters. Ours does not after this move. We keep the chip.

FPL Guru has a new design, and a new home for your FPL week: Matchday.

Matchday changes with the gameweek. Before the deadline it walks you through six calls: Scout, Swap, Lineup, Armband, Chips and Lock in. Lock in gives you a checklist to copy into the FPL app. During the matches you see your points as they land. After the gameweek, you see if you beat the Guru.

If something is hard to find or hard to read, reply to this email or use Send feedback in the app.

Open Matchday

Last issue made four sets of calls. The Gameweek 5 average was 48; here is how they scored.

Captain, Haaland: 6 points (12 with the armband). The vice, Groß, scored 14. The Engine had Groß ahead and we overruled it. That cost 16 points, and it stays on the record.

The Guru XI: 50 points, no hit, against the average of 48. João Pedro did not play; Diop came off the bench for 4, as planned. Overall rank: 1,990,709.

Transfers: Mendy to Gvardiol gained 4 points (4 against 0). For Szoboszlai owners, Groß gained 12 (14 against 2). João Pedro holders got 0; Calvert-Lewin scored 2.

Differentials: Schade 9, Bogle 5, Giles 0.

Deadline: Saturday 10 October, 11:00 BST. Arsenal v Leeds opens at 12:30 BST. Liverpool v Man City is Sunday at 16:30 BST. Coventry v Newcastle closes the round on Monday at 20:00 BST.

Team news: João Pedro (knee), Palmer, Isak, Semenyo, Gakpo, Rice and Tzolis are all rated 75%.

Chip watch: no chip for us. 198,822 managers have played a Wildcard for this round already.

Price watch: Groß (993,254 bought, up £0.2m), Schade and Kostoulas are the most-bought players. João Pedro, Szoboszlai and Palmer are the most-sold. João Pedro, Szoboszlai and Bruno Fernandes all fell £0.1m.

Captain: Groß (£5.9m, Brighton, at Sunderland, Saturday 15:00 BST): 6.9 xPts, the top projection in the game. 47 points so far, and he is first on Brighton's penalties.

Vice: Haaland (£15.6m, Man City, at Liverpool, Sunday 16:30 BST): 5.8 xPts. Five goals in five games, and the elite's captain last week.

No Groß? Bruno Fernandes (£11.9m) is at home to Spurs on Saturday: 5.4 xPts, and he takes Manchester United's penalties.

One free transfer, no hits. xPts are for the next five gameweeks.

• Our move: João Pedro to Barry (£5.7m, Everton, at Hull): 26.0 xPts against 23.3, and £2.0m back in the bank. João Pedro is still 75% with a knee injury.
• If you own Szoboszlai (32.1% owned, 290,478 sold): Dewsbury-Hall (£6.6m, Everton) has 21.3 xPts against 18.4, and costs £0.3m less.
• If you own Palmer (24.8% owned, 75% with a muscle injury): Saka (£9.6m, Arsenal) has 22.4 xPts against 18.1, costs £0.1m less and takes the penalties.

The three highest Gameweek 6 projections among players owned by fewer than 6% of managers:

• McBurnie (Hull, £5.5m, 1.9% owned): 4.9 xPts at home to Everton on Sunday. He is first on Hull's penalties.
• Gonzalo (Fulham, £6.0m, 4.7%): 4.7 xPts at Ipswich on Saturday. He is first on Fulham's penalties.
• Dewsbury-Hall (Everton, £6.6m, 5.8%): 4.5 xPts at Hull on Sunday. He is also our pick to replace Szoboszlai.

One change: Barry replaces João Pedro with the free transfer, leaving £3.0m in the bank. Groß takes the armband and Haaland is vice. The Engine starts a 3-5-2: Slater (2.8 xPts) starts ahead of Diop (2.7), who drops to the bench.


With the armband, the XI projects 55.8 points.

A week before Gameweek 5, 28% of FPL Guru's 1,000-manager elite sample owned Haaland. By the Gameweek 5 deadline it was 85%, the biggest rise in the sample that week, and 75% of the sample gave him the armband. He scored 6. The elite are not wrong to own him. But when 85% of the field holds the same player, he is no longer an edge in either direction. This week his fixture is Anfield, and the armband is a choice again.

Two daily puzzles, fresh at midnight UTC. Today's first clues:

• Who Played With? No. 119: the mystery player shared a dressing room at Inter Milan (2011 to 2012) with the Netherlands' Wesley Sneijder.
• Career Path No. 118: a career that begins at River Plate (2005 to 2009).

The Premier League is back on Saturday. Play today's puzzles before the deadline and take a streak into Gameweek 6.