The Armband Is a Coin Flip

Deadline's Saturday, 11:00 BST. And if your mini-league suddenly looks unfamiliar, that's because 762,489 of you hit the Wildcard button last week, up from 467,900 the week before. The Gameweek 6 average landed at 58.

Before we hand you another set of numbers, a bit of homework. Last week we owned up to a bug that had shrunk the Engine's projections to about half size. We fixed it and said the numbers were right. So we checked. The 20 players the Engine rated highest for Gameweek 6 were projected at 97.7 xPts between them. They scored 98 points. That's about as close as this gets.

What no model can do is call the order inside that top 20 in a single week. Groß and Haaland were our first and second picks, and both scored 6. Football, eh.

Which brings us to this week, because the top of the board is a genuine coin flip. Palmer projects 5.8 xPts at Everton on Saturday. Haaland projects 5.7 xPts at home to Ipswich. That's 0.1 xPts between them.

The crowd has already decided. Three in four managers own Haaland (75.5%), and he was the most-captained player again last week. Palmer sits at 25.4%. But watch the elite: among FPL Guru's 1,000 top managers, Palmer's ownership jumped from 55% to 65% in a week.

We said last week we'd back the Engine, so we are. Palmer gets the armband and Haaland is vice. Let's be honest, this isn't a bold call. It's a tiny edge, and a less crowded armband for the same expected return. If you're sitting on a rank you'd hate to lose, captain Haaland and sleep easy. We won't argue.

Of course, you can't captain Palmer without owning him. Szoboszlai's hamstring has him at 75%, and 351,439 managers have already moved him on. Over the next five gameweeks the Engine has him on 13.3 xPts and Palmer on 28.4 xPts. Szoboszlai sells for £6.9m, we've got £2.9m in the bank, and Palmer costs £9.7m. It fits with £0.1m to spare. That's the free transfer gone.

The Engine made two more calls we're happy to follow. Kinsky (2.9 xPts, home to Coventry on Monday) gets the gloves over Raya (2.5 xPts, away at Forest). And Diop (2.9 xPts) edges Slater (2.3 xPts) into the side, so we line up 4-4-2.

The Wildcard stays in the drawer. After this move nobody in our XI carries a flag, and that's exactly when you don't need one.

Haven't tried Matchday yet? It's the new home for your FPL week on FPL Guru, built for weeks like this one: an injury to fix and a coin-flip armband.

Add your FPL Team ID and it walks you to the deadline in six steps: Scout, Swap, Lineup, Armband, Chips and Lock in. Lock in gives you a checklist to copy straight into the FPL app. Then watch your points land live, and see if you beat the Guru.

Spot something clunky? Hit reply, or use Send feedback in the app.

Try Matchday before the deadline

Here's how last week's calls held up. The Gameweek 6 average was 58.

Captain Groß: 6 points (12 with the armband). Haaland, our vice, also scored 6. We trusted the Engine this time, and it was a wash.

The Guru XI: 68 points, no hit, 10 clear of the average. Szoboszlai didn't play, so Diop came off the bench for 2. We climbed to 1,789,340 overall, from 1,990,709.

Transfers: a mixed bag. Our João Pedro to Barry move cost us 6 points (Barry 6, João Pedro 12). Ouch. Szoboszlai owners who took Dewsbury-Hall gained 13 (13 against 0). Palmer owners who went to Saka lost 6 (2 against 8).

Differentials: Dewsbury-Hall 13, Gonzalo 2, McBurnie 1.

Deadline: Saturday 17 October, 11:00 BST. Everton v Chelsea kicks us off at 12:30 BST, Arsenal visit Forest on Sunday at 16:30 BST, and Spurs v Coventry closes the round on Monday at 20:00 BST.

Team news: Isak (thigh) has no return date. Szoboszlai (hamstring) and Schade (shoulder) are both 75%.

Chip watch: nothing from us. 762,489 managers wildcarded last week.

Price watch: De Cuyper (523,144 in), Groß and Cherki are the most-bought, and De Cuyper and Groß are both up £0.1m. Bruno Fernandes, Szoboszlai and Isak are the most-sold. Isak has already dropped £0.1m.

Captain: Palmer (£9.7m, Chelsea, away at Everton, Saturday 12:30 BST): 5.8 xPts, the highest in the game. Two goals and four assists so far, and he's on penalties.

Vice: Haaland (£15.6m, Man City, home to Ipswich, Saturday 15:00 BST): 5.7 xPts, just 0.1 xPts behind, and in 75.5% of teams.

No Palmer? Bruno Fernandes (£11.9m) goes to Leeds on Sunday: 5.4 xPts, and he's on Manchester United's penalties too.

One free transfer, no hits. All xPts below cover the next five gameweeks.

• Our move: Szoboszlai out, Palmer in (£9.7m, Chelsea): 28.4 xPts against 13.3 xPts. Szoboszlai is 75% with a hamstring problem. Worth emptying the bank for.
• Got Isak? (13.7% owned, 339,089 sold) He's out with a thigh injury and no return date. Gonzalo (£6.1m, Fulham) is on 27.8 xPts, takes the penalties and frees up to £2.9m.
• Got Schade? (14.8% owned, 75% with a shoulder injury) Dewsbury-Hall (£6.6m, Everton) is on 21.8 xPts against Schade's 12.1 xPts, for £0.4m more. He scored 13 last week.

Three players owned by fewer than 6% of managers, with the best Gameweek 7 projections. We've left out last week's picks, though McBurnie and Dewsbury-Hall are still up there on 4.3 xPts.

• Evanilson (Bournemouth, £6.0m, 3.6% owned): 4.2 xPts at home to Sunderland on Sunday. One goal and three assists so far.
• King (Fulham, £5.6m, 4.7%): 4.2 xPts at home to Hull on Saturday. Two goals already.
• Mitchell (Crystal Palace, £4.5m, 5.9%): 4.2 xPts at Brighton on Sunday. A £4.5m defender with two goals. Not bad for the price.

Just the one change: Palmer in for Szoboszlai, leaving £0.1m in the bank. Palmer wears the armband and Haaland is vice. The Engine picks a 4-4-2, with Kinsky (2.9 xPts) in goal ahead of Raya (2.5 xPts), and Diop (2.9 xPts) in ahead of Slater (2.3 xPts).


With the armband, the XI is projected at 55.1 xPts.

Last week we fixed a bug in the FPL Guru Engine. Here's the proof it worked. The 20 players it rated highest for Gameweek 6 were projected at 97.7 xPts between them. They scored 98 points. For the players we actually pick from, the numbers are right.

It's not a crystal ball, though. Barry and Bruno Fernandes were both on 5.4 xPts. Barry scored 6, Bruno scored 1. One week is noisy, which is why we judge transfers over five.

Two daily puzzles, fresh every midnight UTC. Here's today's first clue for each:

• Who Played With? No. 126: our mystery player shared a dressing room at Manchester United (2007 to 2009) with the Netherlands' Edwin van der Sar.
• Career Path No. 125: this career starts at Grenoble (2005 to 2008).

Get them done before Saturday's deadline and carry your streak into Gameweek 7.