Haaland Paid Out. Now Comes Villa.

Deadline's today, Friday, at 18:30 BST. Ipswich and Forest kick off at 20:00, so get your team in before dinner.

Gameweek 7: the crowd cashed in. 724,286 managers played the Triple Captain, and Haaland was the most-captained player again. He delivered 13 points, so anyone who tripled him banked 39. Raya (in 44.7% of teams) added 9. The template had a good week, and the average climbed to 59.

The real fireworks were on the south coast. Brighton beat Crystal Palace 5-0, and four Brighton players scored 10 or more: Ayari 13, Kostoulas 12, Vuskovic 11 and Boscagli 10. Neto topped the week with 15, from 2.9% ownership. And the popular Chelsea picks? João Pedro (73.1% owned) and Rogers (48.6%) got 2 each. Cherki (38.4%) got nothing.

Where it went wrong for the Guru XI. Our armband went to Palmer by 0.1 xPts. He scored 2. Haaland, our vice, scored 13, so that call cost 11 points. Worse, the issue went out a day before the deadline. By Saturday morning the Engine had already swung to Haaland (5.5 xPts to 4.4). Kinsky also beat Raya to the gloves by 0.4 xPts, then scored 2 while Raya scored 9 on the bench. Two coin flips, 18 points, and a 50 that sat nine below average.

The Engine itself held up: its top 20 Gameweek 7 picks were projected at 90.8 xPts and scored 84 points. The lesson is about tiny gaps, not the model. When two players are 0.1 apart, it's a guess.

Gameweek 8: the template gets tested. Haaland goes to Villa on Saturday lunchtime, and the Engine drops him to 3.7 xPts, about the 20th-best this week, and he's in 77% of teams. The top projection belongs to Mbeumo: 5.6 xPts at home to Bournemouth, and 26.5 xPts over the next five, the most of any player. Palmer is next on 5.3 xPts against Spurs.

The transfer market has its own ideas. Cherki is the second most-bought player (282,239 in), but the Engine has him on 2.2 xPts at Villa. Brighton defenders are worth a look instead: Vuskovic and De Cuyper are the two best defenders over the next five, even with Liverpool and City next.

So here's the plan. Mbeumo gets the armband this time, and Palmer is vice. A 1.9 xPts gap is not a coin flip. Haaland stays, because one quiet projection is no reason to sell him. The free transfer swaps Gvardiol (13.2 xPts over five) for Vuskovic (£5.1m, 21.4 xPts). Raya gets the gloves back. No chip.

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Open Matchday before the deadline

Here's how last week's calls held up. The Gameweek 7 average was 59.

Captain Palmer: 2 points (4 with the armband). Haaland, our vice, scored 13. That one stung.

The Guru XI: 50 points, no hit, 9 below the average. Raya scored 9 on the bench, while Kinsky got 2. We slipped to 2,705,986 overall, from 1,789,340.

Transfers: our Szoboszlai to Palmer move gained 1 point (2 against 1). Isak owners who took Gonzalo lost 7, because Isak came back and scored 9. Schade owners who went to Dewsbury-Hall gained 2.

Differentials: Evanilson 12, King 2, Mitchell 0. One out of three, but what a one.

Deadline: today, Friday 23 October, 18:30 BST. Ipswich v Forest opens at 20:00 BST. Clocks go back on Sunday morning, so Sunday's games kick off at 14:00 and 16:30 GMT.

Team news: Semenyo (knee) and Szoboszlai (hamstring) have no return date. Saka (thigh) is 50%. O'Reilly (back) and Brobbey (hamstring) are 75%.

Chip watch: 724,286 managers played the Triple Captain last week. We have no chip to suggest.

Price watch: Palmer, Rogers, Groß, De Cuyper, Calafiori and Tavernier all went up £0.1m. Semenyo (398,813 out), Szoboszlai and Bruno Fernandes are the most-sold.

Captain: Mbeumo (£7.9m, Man Utd, home to Bournemouth, Sunday 14:00 GMT): 5.6 xPts, the highest in the game. Four goals so far, and a form score of 8.0.

Vice: Palmer (£9.8m, Chelsea, home to Spurs, Saturday 17:30 BST): 5.3 xPts, and he's on penalties.

No Mbeumo? Barry (£5.7m, Everton) is on 5.0 xPts at Arsenal, and Bruno Fernandes (£11.8m) is on 4.7 xPts in the same Bournemouth game as Mbeumo.

One free transfer, no hits. All xPts below cover the next five gameweeks.

• Our move: Gvardiol out, Vuskovic in (£5.1m, Brighton): 21.4 xPts against 13.2 xPts. That's our third Brighton player, and we're fine with it.
• Got Semenyo? (11.0% owned, 398,813 sold) He's out with a knee injury and no return date. Mbeumo (£7.9m, Man Utd) costs less and leads all midfielders on 26.5 xPts.
• Got Szoboszlai? (18.2% owned, no return date) Dewsbury-Hall (£6.6m, Everton) is on 21.8 xPts and saves you £0.2m.

Three players owned by fewer than 3% of managers, with strong Gameweek 8 projections. We've left out last week's picks.

• Le Fée (Sunderland, £5.7m, 2.9% owned): 4.3 xPts at home to Leeds on Sunday. Second on penalties.
• Rayan (Bournemouth, £6.3m, 1.5%): 4.3 xPts at Man Utd on Sunday. A punt, but the Engine likes him.
• Neto (Chelsea, £6.5m, 2.9%): 3.8 xPts at home to Spurs on Saturday. He scored 15 last week, the most of any player.

One change: Vuskovic in for Gvardiol, with up to £0.8m left in the bank. Mbeumo wears the armband and Palmer is vice. It stays a 4-4-2. In goal, Raya (2.8 xPts) starts over Kinsky (3.1 xPts at Chelsea). Kinsky edges this week by 0.3, but Raya is well ahead over the next five (18.0 xPts to 15.9). After last week, a 0.3 gap doesn't decide it.


With the armband, the XI is projected at 49.2 xPts.

That's how many managers bought Cherki this week, more than anyone but Tavernier. He's a fine player in a strong side, and he's on our watch list.

But the Engine has him on just 2.2 xPts at Villa this week, and 11.2 xPts over the next five. Mbeumo, bought by about 190,000 managers, is on 26.5 xPts over the same run. Sometimes the crowd is early. Sometimes it's just loud.

Two daily puzzles, fresh every midnight UTC. Here's today's first clue for each:

• Who Played With? No. 133: our mystery player shared a dressing room at Sunderland (2012) with England's Jordan Pickford.
• Career Path No. 132: this career starts at Aragua in Venezuela (2006 to 2008).

Get them done before tonight's deadline and carry your streak into Gameweek 8.